🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."